Characterizing Cotton Defoliation Progress via UAV-Based Multispectral-Derived Leaf Area Index and Analysis of Influencing Factors

Timely monitoring of cotton defoliation progress is crucial for optimizing the quality of mechanical harvesting. To accurately assess the defoliation status prior to mechanical picking, a field experiment was conducted in Hejian, Hebei Province, China, in 2022. Using a DJI P4M multispectral drone, canopy images of cotton were collected before and after defoliation at three flight altitudes: 25 m, 50 m, and 100 m. The study employed machine learning algorithms including linear regression, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Generalized Additive Model (GAM), and Random Forest (RF) to invert the Leaf Area Index (LAI). Additionally, SVM-based supervised classification was introduced to eliminate background interference from soil and open cotton bolls, while the XGBoost model and SHAP method were used to analyze the main factors influencing LAI inversion. Key findings include the following: The univariate linear relationship between EVI and LAI proved to be the most robust, with the model constructed from 100 m flight altitude data performing best (validation set: R2 = 0.921, RMSE = 0.284). The rate of LAI change showed a strong positive correlation with field-measured defoliation rate (r = 0.83–0.88), confirming its reliability as a proxy indicator for defoliation progress. Soil and open cotton bolls were identified as major negative factors affecting LAI inversion accuracy. The optimal machine learning prediction model varied with days after spraying, demonstrating significant temporal variability. This study demonstrates that high-throughput LAI inversion based on drone-derived multispectral EVI enables precise and dynamic monitoring of cotton defoliation. The approach provides farmers and field managers with an efficient, non-destructive monitoring tool. By delivering real-time insight into defoliation progress, it plays a pivotal role in enabling precision defoliation management, reducing excessive chemical use, optimizing the scheduling of mechanical operations, and ultimately enhancing both the sustainability and profitability of cotton production.