Impact of Natural Disasters on Education Quality: Evidence from the 2010 Floods in Benin Republic

The impact of natural hazards on human capital accumulation remains a critical challenge for developing nations. The 2010 Benin floods, which displaced over 100,000 people and damaged schools, exemplify this threat. This study assesses the direct and regional spillover effects of the floods on educational outcomes using a municipality-level spatial analysis. Affected municipalities experienced a 7.2-percentage-point decline in the primary school leaving exam pass rate the following year, which recovered within 2 years. Despite this recovery, the underlying institutional vulnerabilities that constitute the disaster’s social dimension are revealed by the shock’s regional diffusion. Indeed, findings reveal that population displacement and resource pressure led to a significant and delayed negative indirect effect on neighbouring, unaffected municipalities. This underscores the need for cross-sectoral disaster resilience policies that address the long-term, cross-border nature of socio-economic shocks and emphasise regional resource planning beyond immediate educational interventions.