Advanced Resource Modelling and Agile Scenario Generation for Mineral Exploration at the Cu-Au (Mo-Ag) San Antonio–Potrerillos District, Chile

Agile and flexible resource modelling is essential for informed decision-making in early-stage mineral project assessment, and in more advanced stages, particularly when compared with conventional deterministic geological modelling and single-estimate resource evaluations. This study presents a case of rapid scenario generation to view, interpret and test the impact of alternative geological and modelling assumptions, including the definition of geological domains, geological interpretation, grade estimation within domains, and the associated uncertainty. The workflows are implemented in Annapurna™ Resource, a cloud-native geostatistical platform designed to support agile, advanced, and multivariate modelling workflows. Focusing on the multi-commodity San Antonio–Potrerillos district, we demonstrate how rapid model construction enables the systematic evaluation of geological and statistical assumptions, contrasting deterministic estimates with probabilistic outcomes and testing their impact on estimated grades and tonnage under multiple scenarios for five elements: copper (Cu), molybdenum (Mo), gold (Au), silver (Ag), and arsenic (As). The approach provides quantitative measures of model reliability, identifies areas of high uncertainty, and supports the prioritization of new drilling to improve geological knowledge, exploration targeting, and resource classification. This case study highlights the value of fast-turnaround, probabilistic modelling not as a replacement for traditional resource reporting, but as a decision-support framework that enhances understanding of the geology, tests the sensitivity of assumptions, and accelerates learning throughout exploration and into operations. The main results suggest that additional drilling can be strategically placed to reduce the geological uncertainty derived from comparing the current interpretation with the probabilistic model built with indicator kriging. Furthermore, this has relevance in reducing the risk in the assessment of the metal content in each area of the deposit. Sensitivity analysis performed over key parameters of the estimation suggests that outliers’ treatment is the most impactful step during estimation. With current technological tools, it is possible to maintain a live resource model, which can be continuously updated to assess the impact of new data and decisions in near real time.