Close-in compact super-Earth systems emerging from resonant chains: Slow destabilization by unseen remnants of formation

Planet formation simulations consistently predict compact systems of numerous small planets in chains of mean motion resonances formed by planet-disk interaction, but transiting planet surveys have found most systems to be non-resonant and somewhat dynamically excited. A scenario in which nearly all of the primordial resonant chains undergo dynamical instabilities and collisions has previously been found to closely match many features of the observed planet sample. However, existing models have not been tested against new observations that show a steep decline in the resonant fraction as a function of stellar age on a timescale of ∼ 100 Myr. We constructed a simplified model incorporating Type I migration, growth from embryos, and N-body integrations continued to 500 Myr and used it to generate a synthetic planet population. Nearly all systems exit the disk phase in a resonant configuration but begin slowly diffusing away from the center of the resonance. Dynamical instabilities can arise on timescales of tens or hundreds of million years, especially when systems formed in disks with a convergent migration trap. In this case, a secondary chain of smaller planets that remained at their birth location eventually breaks, destabilizing the inner resonant chain. We also show that the instability statistics are well modeled by a Weibull distribution, and use this to extrapolate our population to Gyr ages. The close match of our modeled systems to the observed population implies that the high resonance fraction predicted by this class of models is in fact consistent with the data, and the previously reported overabundance of resonant systems was a consequence of comparing simulations of early evolution to mature Gyr-old systems. This result also suggests that instabilities triggered by disk dissipation or other very early mechanisms are unlikely to be consistent with observed young systems.