Modelling the impact of economic development, health-related factors and political instability on life expectancy in Somalia: an ARDL approach

Somalia faces significant challenges in improving life expectancy due to protracted conflict, poverty, and limited access to healthcare. Understanding the determinants of life expectancy is crucial for effective policy interventions. This study investigates the impact of economic development and health-related factors on life expectancy in Somalia. This study employs an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, estimated using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), to conduct a time-series analysis of annual data from 1991 to 2022, sourced from the Statistical, Economic and Social Research and Training Centre for Islamic Countries (SESRIC) and the World Bank. The model examines the relationship between life expectancy at birth (dependent variable) and GDP per capita, ODA for humanitarian aid, unemployment rate, political stability index, population density, immunization rate, and adolescent fertility rate. The ARDL bounds testing approach was used to assess cointegration, and diagnostic tests were performed to ensure model validity. The ARDL bounds test confirms a long-run equilibrium relationship between life expectancy and the explanatory variables. In the long run, population density and immunization rates are found to have a positive and significant impact on life expectancy, while Official Development Assistance (ODA) for humanitarian aid exhibits a negative association. The error correction term is significant, confirming a rapid speed of adjustment back to long-run equilibrium after a short-term shock, confirming adjustment to long-run equilibrium. The lagged change in immunization rate has a negative short-run impact on life expectancy (coefficient = -0.066, p = 0.002). The findings suggest that policies must be context-specific. Concrete actions should include leveraging the “urban advantage” through strategic investment in public health infrastructure in densely populated areas, reforming aid to prioritize long-term health system strengthening over short-term relief, and expanding national immunization programs. These targeted interventions are crucial for enhancing life expectancy in Somalia.