Ecological and Economic Sustainability in Resource-Based Cities: A Case Study of Ecosystem Services, Drivers, and Compensation Strategies in Xinzhou, China

Mining-resource-based cities, as distinctive human–environment systems, face urgent challenges from intensified urbanization and mining, leading to land imbalance and ecosystem service degradation. To enhance resilience, it is essential to identify the evolution and drivers of ecosystem services and construct targeted ecological compensation models. This study focuses on Xinzhou, a representative mining city in China, and systematically analyzes three aspects: (1) spatiotemporal dynamics of land use and ecosystem service value (ESV) from 2000 to 2023 using Markov chains, equivalent factor method, hotspot and sensitivity analyses; (2) identification of ESV driving mechanisms through an integrated “stepwise regression + geographical detector” framework; and (3) formulation of ecological compensation models via quantification of priority indices, demand intensity coefficients, and compensation standards. Key findings indicate that land conversion was concentrated in coalfield zones and surrounding built-up areas, involving 2,518,341.75 hm2 (35.76% of total area), primarily characterized by a reduction in farmland and expansion of forest, grassland, and construction land. ESV showed a striped spatial pattern, with higher values in mountainous zones and lower values in valleys and basins with frequent human activity. The northwest coalfield region experienced an initial decline followed by a recovery in ESV. Annual mean temperature emerged as the dominant driver, while DEM influence increased annually. All factor interactions exhibited synergistic effects, with natural variables exerting greater influence than socio-economic ones. Ecological compensation demand was high overall, especially in Wutai, Kelan, and Pianguan counties, with high-value compensation areas mainly distributed in the eastern and central parts of Xinzhou. Looking ahead, a compensation framework prioritizing ecological–economic optimization should be developed, guided by zoned, typological, and dynamic configurations. By analyzing ecosystem governance from the perspective of a mining-resource-based city, this study enhances global ecosystem service evaluation frameworks and offers a replicable model to advance transnational ecological cooperation and green urban transformation.