Fire Behavior and Propagation of Twin Wildfires in a Mediterranean Landscape: A Case Study from İzmir, Türkiye

Twin wildfires burned over 9500 ha in Seferihisar, İzmir, western Türkiye, on 29—30 June 2025 under extreme fire weather conditions. This study reconstructs the spatiotemporal progression of the fires and examines the drivers of contrasting behaviors and burn severity. Multi-source datasets—Sentinel-2 imagery, VIIRS/MODIS thermal detections, MTG images and thermal detections, aerial photos, and ground data—were integrated to delineate progression polygons and compute rate of spread (ROS), fuel consumption (FC), and fire-line intensity (FI). Kuyucak fire showed rapid early growth, burning 3554 ha in 2.5 h (mean ROS of 5.0 km h−1; mean FI of 37,789 kW m−1), driven by strong northeasterly winds of 40–50 km h−1, steep terrain, dense Pinus brutia fuels, and very low dead fine-fuel moisture (<6%). Kavakdere fire advanced more slowly (mean ROS of 1.6 km h−1) across open grassland and cropland, yielding lower FC and FI. Synoptic analysis revealed a strong pressure-gradient-induced northeasterly wind regime linked to a mid-tropospheric geopotential height dipole between Central Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean, while WRF simulations indicated a dry boundary layer and enhanced low-level winds during peak spread. Sentinel-2 dNBR burn severity mapping showed substantial spatial variability tied to fuel and topography contrasts. Findings demonstrate how twin ignitions under similar weather conditions can produce divergent outcomes, underscoring the need for terrain- and fuel-aware strategies during extreme Mediterranean fire outbreaks.