Reducing and Forecasting Carbon Emissions in the Construction Industry: A Case Study in China Using the <scp>LMDI</scp> ‐ <scp>SD</scp> Model

ABSTRACT In China, 57.5% of the carbon emissions of the whole life cycle of a building is generated in the materialization stage. Jiangsu's construction industry accounts for around 13.58% of the country's carbon emissions. This research combines the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model with the System Dynamics (SD) model to analyze 10 factors influencing carbon emissions changes during the materialization stage of Jiangsu's construction industry from 2013 to 2021 and to forecast future carbon emission trends, thereby providing targeted policy recommendations. The results show that the production stage accounts for about 94% of the total carbon emissions, the transportation stage about 5%, and the construction stage about 1%. The main factors that increase emissions are per capita output value (GP), mechanical capability (SW) and construction energy density (PE), while the main factors that reduce emissions are construction energy consumption efficiency (ES), economic benefit (GG), and as‐built efficiency (SS). Based on the results, six single scenarios, and two integrated scenarios compared with a baseline scenario are constructed to explore the trend in emissions from 2022 to 2030. In the single scenarios, emissions can be reduced by promoting economic development, while the population growth increases emissions. Increasing the proportion of technology investment can reduce emissions, however, its excessively increase can generate opposite effects. In the integrated scenarios, the emissions are lowest when the growth in the economy and technology investment are highest and the population development is lowest. Thus, a combination of effective policies should be implemented to achieve carbon peak goal.