Spatiotemporal dynamics of urban expansion driven agricultural land loss and its implications for sustainability

This study examines the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban expansion and agricultural land loss in the peri-urban areas of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, from 1985 to 2025, and projects future land-use trajectories to 2055 using Geographic Information Systems (GIS), remote sensing, and hybrid MLP–Markov modeling. Multi-temporal Landsat imagery was classified using supervised Maximum Likelihood Classification and post-classification change detection to quantify historical Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) transitions. Results reveal a dramatic decline in cropland from 32.71% (14,209 ha) in 1985 to 10.28% (4468.8 ha) in 2025 alongside rapid expansion of built-up areas from 12.41% (5392.4 ha) to 68.57% (29,789.19 ha). Transition analysis, combined with key spatial drivers (distance to roads, population density, slope, and elevation), was used to train a Multilayer Perceptron neural network to generate transition potential maps. Integrated MLP–Markov simulations predict that built-up land will increase further to 89%, 90%, and 91% by 2035, 2045, and 2055, respectively, reducing cropland to approximately 5% by mid-century. Classification reliability is supported by high ROC-AUC (0.875) and Kappa (> 0.79) values. The findings highlight severe threats to peri-urban agricultural livelihoods, food security, and ecological stability as urban growth intensifies. The study underscores the urgent need for integrated and enforceable land-use policies that balance urban development with the preservation of agricultural and ecological systems, offering evidence-based insights for sustainable urban planning in rapidly growing cities across the globe.