Intelligent Assessment Framework of Unmanned Air Vehicle Health Status Based on Bayesian Stacking

This paper proposed a stacking-based ensemble model to replace the traditional single machine learning model prediction approach, significantly improving the evaluation efficiency of SoC and SoH of lithium batteries. Firstly, a dataset was constructed including three input variables (temperature, current, and voltage) and two output variables (SoC and SoH). Pearson correlation coefficients and histograms were used for preliminary analysis of the correlations and distributions of the dataset. The multi-layer perceptron (MLP), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and extreme gradient boosting tree (XGB) were used as base prediction models. Bayesian optimization (BO) was used to fine-tune the parameters of these models, then three statistical indicators were compared to assess the prediction accuracy of the four ML models. Furthermore, MLP, SVM, and RF were selected as base models, while XGB was used as the meta-model, enhancing the integrated performance of the prediction models. SHAP was used to quantify the influence of the output variables on SoC. Finally, linked measures for the prediction model were proposed to achieve autonomous monitoring of drones. The results showed that XGB exhibited superior prediction accuracy, with R2 of 0.93 and RMSE of 0.14. The ensemble model obtained using stacking reduced the number of outliers by 89.4%. Current was identified as the key variable influencing both SoC and SoH. Furthermore, the intelligent prediction model proposed in this paper can be integrated with controllers, visualization web pages, and other systems to enable the health status assessment of drones.