Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Carbon Emission Intensity from Cultivated Land in Arid Xinjiang, China (2000–2020)

Against the global push for “carbon peak and carbon neutrality” and Xinjiang’s role as a major arid-region agricultural base in China, balancing agricultural development with low-carbon transitions remains challenging due to its fragile ecology and resource-intensive farming. However, county-scale dynamics of cultivated land carbon emission intensity (CEI) and its drivers in Xinjiang are understudied, limiting targeted mitigation. This study analyzed Xinjiang’s cultivated land CEI (2000–2020) using the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression and Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology (GTWR-STIRPAT) model, geodetector, and spatiotemporal analysis, with counties as units. Data included 30 m-resolution land use data and socioeconomic statistics. Results showed CEI rose from 0.270 to 0.377 t/hm2, with marked spatial differences: northern Xinjiang saw fluctuating growth and a 58.65 km northeastward shift of emission gravity, while southern Xinjiang had lower western CEI (ecological constraints) and higher eastern CEI (agricultural expansion). Key drivers were total sown area (TSAC), agricultural film usage (UAPF), and rural agricultural population (RAP). Factor interactions (machinery power × sown area, q = 0.844) non-linearly amplified CEI. The GTWR-STIRPAT model (R2 = 0.97) outperformed OLS and captured heterogeneity—mechanization/area expansion dominated northern CEI, while film use/population mattered more in the south. Region-specific strategies are needed: northern Xinjiang should optimize machinery energy and control area expansion; southern Xinjiang, strengthen ecology and promote low-carbon inputs; eastern Xinjiang, leverage efficient oasis agriculture. This study supports precise carbon management in Xinjiang and similar arid regions globally.