Digital finance and the African carbon divide: A geospatial analysis of oil vs. non-oil economies

• Digital finance cuts emissions in oil-rich Africa, raises them elsewhere. • ICT’s carbon impact varies by a nation’s economic structure. • A “carbon divide” exists between oil and non-oil African economies. • Strong governance and clean energy steer digital tools sustainably. • Policy must be spatially adaptive for a fair African energy transition. This study employs a geospatial econometric framework to analyze the divergent impact of digital financial inclusion and ICT diffusion on CO 2 emissions across 33 African economies from 2010 to 2023. Disaggregating the sample into oil-producing and non-oil-producing nations reveals a critical carbon divide. While digital finance significantly reduces emissions in oil-exporting countries, it correlates with increased emissions in resource-poor economies. Similarly, the environmental effect of digitalization is context-dependent, reducing emissions in some settings while exacerbating them in others. The results demonstrate that governance effectiveness and renewable energy adoption critically moderate these relationships. This heterogeneity stems from fundamental geostructural differences—including resource dependence, energy infrastructure, and institutional capacity—that shape how digital tools interact with national energy systems. The findings move beyond uniform policy prescriptions, proposing instead a spatially-differentiated geo-policy framework. This framework aligns digital innovation with planetary boundaries and local resource realities, offering a pathway for African nations to harness the digital revolution for a just and resilient low-carbon transition.