Uncertainties and anticipated disturbances as drivers of tenant relocation in Swedish housing renovation

To meet the 2050 climate targets, the renovation rate of existing housing is expected to increase significantly. However, such large-scale renovation efforts have raised concerns about their social implications, particularly relating to disruption and the potential displacement of tenants. This paper aims to deepen the understanding of the social consequences of renovation by exploring whether and for what reasons renovation processes influence households' decision to relocate. The study draws on 450 interviews with households in municipally owned housing who chose to relocate from 42 Swedish renovation projects affecting 6993 apartments, and was analysed using both qualitative and statistical methods. The study contributes two main results. First, the qualitative analysis identifies disturbances and uncertainties as primary drivers of tenants' relocation. Second, the statistical analysis established relationships between tenants' relocation decisions and factors such as age, the rent per sqm before the renovation, and the extent of the renovation. The research revealed that tenant relocations frequently precede the start of renovation work rather than occurring during construction. The findings emphasise that mitigating renovation-related disruptions is crucial across both minor and comprehensive overhauls to prevent displacement and housing instability. Since most renovation-motivated relocations occur before work begins due to perceived insecurities, the timing and design of communication require particular care.