The Resilience of Agricultural Product Supply Chain: An Empirical Analysis Based on Spatial Spillover and Threshold Effects

This study draws on panel data from 31 Chinese provinces spanning 2012–2023 to develop a comprehensive indicator system capturing both the digital economy and agricultural product supply chain resilience. Anchored in the perspective of sustainable agricultural development, the analysis examines how the digital economy contributes to enhancing the resilience and long-term stability of agricultural product supply chains amid rising external uncertainties. The results show that the digital economy significantly improves supply chain resilience not only within a province but also across neighboring regions, indicating a clear digital empowerment effect with pronounced spatial spillovers. Further heterogeneity analysis reveals marked regional and urban–rural disparities: the estimated effects are substantially stronger in eastern China than in the central and western regions, and cities located within urban agglomerations experience more pronounced resilience gains than those outside such clusters. In addition, threshold analyses indicate that agricultural technological progress and industrial structure upgrading act as positive moderating factors, implying a nonlinear and stage-dependent relationship between the digital economy and agricultural product supply chain resilience. Overall, these findings underscore the role of digital development in fostering resilient and sustainable agricultural supply chains and provide insights relevant to coordinated regional development under the broader agenda of high-quality agricultural transformation.