Prepare the umbrella before it rains: Transmission and rescue strategy of extreme climate shocks via susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible model

Extreme climatic events have amplified in both frequency and intensity, exerting substantial impacts on socioeconomic development. In this paper, we investigate the propagation dynamics of extreme climate risks and the rescue strategy after climate disaster via the SIRS (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Susceptible) model which can capture the entire transmission process of climate risk contagion by employing simulation analysis. Our findings reveal that climate-induced shocks propagate dynamically through corporate networks, amplifying their systemic impacts. We demonstrate that post-disaster government relief can effectively curtail risk propagation, though its efficacy is contingent upon both intervention intensity and timing. Corporations establishing robust risk-mitigation frameworks prove superior in cost-effectiveness compared to governmental aid. By pioneering the application of SIRS modeling to climate risk transmission dynamics, this work advances theoretical frameworks in climate risk research while offering actionable insights for optimizing post-disaster rescue.

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Publication Details

Journal
Ecological Economics
Published
2026-02-15
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.108966
Primary Topic
Disaster Management and Resilience
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

Prepare the umbrella before it rains: Transmission and rescue strategy of extreme climate shocks via susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible model

Yuling Luo, Qian Wang, Fang Nan
Ecological Economics
Disaster Management and Resilience
article

Prepare the umbrella before it rains: Transmission and rescue strategy of extreme climate shocks via susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible model

Yuling Luo, Qian Wang, Fang Nan
article en

Abstract

Extreme climatic events have amplified in both frequency and intensity, exerting substantial impacts on socioeconomic development. In this paper, we investigate the propagation dynamics of extreme climate risks and the rescue strategy after climate disaster via the SIRS (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Susceptible) model which can capture the entire transmission process of climate risk contagion by employing simulation analysis. Our findings reveal that climate-induced shocks propagate dynamically through corporate networks, amplifying their systemic impacts. We demonstrate that post-disaster government relief can effectively curtail risk propagation, though its efficacy is contingent upon both intervention intensity and timing. Corporations establishing robust risk-mitigation frameworks prove superior in cost-effectiveness compared to governmental aid. By pioneering the application of SIRS modeling to climate risk transmission dynamics, this work advances theoretical frameworks in climate risk research while offering actionable insights for optimizing post-disaster rescue.

Ecological EconomicsVol. 244
Shandong University of Finance and Economics (CN)
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 61%
Disaster Management and Resilience
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