Adaptive area-wide management for suppressing spruce budworm outbreaks: effectiveness of the early intervention strategy

Abstract In eastern North America, two main insecticide-based strategies are used to manage spruce budworm ( Choristoneura fumiferana ) outbreaks. The traditional ‘Foliage Protection Strategy’ (FPS) focuses on temporarily reducing defoliation and tree mortality in high-value stands, allowing outbreaks to progress naturally in surrounding areas. The ‘Early Intervention Strategy’ (EIS) is an adaptive, area-wide management approach that targets low-density “hotspots” to prevent outbreak growth and spread. We report findings from a 10-year case study (2015–2024) in Atlantic Canada assessing EIS effectiveness. EIS treatments consistently reduced population growth rates, resulting in a 12–67% reduction in hotspot areas compared to untreated areas. Crucially, this suppression curbed the rise and spread of the outbreak across northern New Brunswick, with negligible defoliation observed throughout the study period. By comparison, in a neighboring Quebec study area contemporaneously managed with FPS, the outbreak advanced normally, causing moderate to severe defoliation over ~ 1.7 million hectares by 2024. Moreover, EIS required ~ 80% less insecticide, with 66% of treated areas receiving treatment in only a single year, compared with just 15% under FPS. Our findings provide robust evidence for the effectiveness of EIS when implemented under suitable conditions, highlighting its potential as a proactive outbreak management approach.