Climate-driven potential distribution of the invasive tree tobacco and its overlap with biodiversity conservation areas worldwide

• Ecological niche models reveal that Nicotiana glauca has a broad climatic suitability that includes regions where it is not yet present. • Future climate scenarios indicate increased suitability at higher latitudes, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. • Current and future potential distribution areas overlap with biodiversity hotspots and protected areas worldwide. • Protected areas and hotspots in the Palearctic realm are projected to become increasingly suitable in the future. • The results provide spatially explicit guidance to support targeted prevention, early detection, and control of this highly invasive species. Biological invasions threaten global biodiversity, especially in high-value conservation areas, making it essential to predict where invasive species may become established in order to guide regional-scale biosecurity efforts. We used ecological niche modelling to estimate the potential distribution of the highly invasive plant Nicotiana glauca under current and future climate scenarios, and we assessed its overlap with global biodiversity hotspots and protected areas. Our findings showed that the species' suitable environment has an extensive geographical distribution, encompassing regions of Asia and northern Africa where it is not currently present or invasive. Although projections under climate change scenarios show an overall reduction in the total suitable area, higher-latitude regions, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere (i.e. the Nearctic and Palearctic realms), would become suitable for the species. Notably, a significant proportion of biodiversity hotspots and protected areas worldwide are currently suitable for N. glauca , and those located in the Palearctic realm are projected to become increasingly suitable in the future. Our study provides crucial spatial insights for the targeted prevention and control of a highly invasive plant. More broadly, it highlights the importance of incorporating region-specific assessments into invasion risk analyses to improve conservation planning.