Carbon emission reduction pathways in China's rural production and household sectors: A TOE and fsQCA-Based analysis

Rural clean energy transformation (CET) is essential for achieving Chinese national carbon reduction goals and addressing climate change. However, rural areas face distinct challenges stemming from fragmented infrastructure, uneven economic development, and diverse energy demands. Using the Technology-Organization-Environment (TOE) framework and Fuzzy Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) method, this study aims to explore the carbon emission reduction pathways of the CET across household and production sectors based on provincial-level data in China. The findings are as follows. (1) Carbon emission intensity (CMI) declined in 80% of provinces, with Hebei, Gansu, and Qinghai recording the largest reductions of 35.3%, 45.8%, and 40.7%, respectively. In contrast, more developed regions such as Guangdong and Zhejiang experienced increases in household energy CMI, with Guangdong showing a sharp rise of 216.1%. Meanwhile, CMI from production energy saw notable declines, particularly in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu. (2) Three distinct CET pathways were identified: i) policy- and market-driven models, ii) infrastructure-led transitions in less-developed regions, and iii) multi-stakeholder collaboration in agricultural and rural industries. (3) Household and production energy transitions exhibit distinct characteristics. The former centers on service enhancement and infrastructure coordination, while the latter is primarily driven by producer willingness and demand-side dynamics. These findings underscore the need for tailored, region-specific CET strategies that reflect local conditions and energy consumption patterns. • The clean energy transition (CET) in rural areas is driven by technological advancements, organizational support, and market incentives. • Carbon emission intensity (CMI) decreased in 80% of provinces from 2016 to 2022, with significant reductions in Hebei, Gansu, and Qinghai. • Rural energy management institutions and government support play a central role in CET, with key pathways identified for both household and production sectors. • Core factors for CET in rural households include clean energy facilities, energy management institutions, and government support.