AI-Powered Carbon Mitigation: Charting the Green Inflection Point of Manufacturing in the Intelligent Economy Era

As a key production factor in the era of the intelligent economy, Artificial Intelligence is profoundly reshaping the production methods and energy usage structures of the manufacturing industry. Based on the data of 55 economies from 2002 to 2020, this paper systematically examines the impact and mechanism of AI on carbon emissions embodied in manufacturing production from the perspective of the intelligent economy. The results show that AI presents an “inverted U-shaped” characteristic in relation to carbon emissions embodied in manufacturing production, that is, it has a “carbon-increasing” effect in the early stage and a “carbon-reducing” effect in the later stage. This conclusion remains valid after a series of robustness tests. Mechanism analysis indicates that AI jointly affects carbon emissions embodied in manufacturing production by improving the technical level of manufacturing production and energy utilization efficiency, but there is certain national heterogeneity in the relevant transmission paths, with green inflection points appearing earlier in developed countries. Heterogeneity analysis shows that AI first reduces and then expands the carbon emission gap between different manufacturing industries, and at the same time, the carbon reduction effect on industries varies significantly due to differences in technical gaps, production energy consumption, and the status of intelligent applications. Therefore, China should accelerate the promotion and application of AI in the manufacturing industry, enhance the transmission effect of the manufacturing industry’s production technology level and energy utilization efficiency on carbon emission reduction in the manufacturing industry, and at the same time, rationally plan the industrial layout of AI investment to fully release the carbon emission reduction capacity of AI.