Comparative and predictive analysis of avian influenza in live bird markets of the Poyang Lake region: a long-term monitoring study

Avian influenza positivity rate in the core areas of Poyang Lake is among the highest nationwide and exhibits seasonal patterns (higher in winter and spring). The cutting board samples had the highest positivity rate, highlighting the importance of timely cleaning of cutting boards to control the spread of avian influenza. After the COVID-19 pandemic, the avian influenza positivity rate increased significantly, with a particularly notable rise in the H5 subtype, which aligns with the global trend of increased H5 prevalence. After vaccination, the H7 subtype completely disappeared, but the impact on the H5 subtype was minimal. The predictive results indicate that avian influenza in this region will continue to rise and remain at high levels. We recommend strengthening avian influenza monitoring in this area and promptly implementing disinfection and cleaning measures in market environments to prevent future outbreaks.