Forecasting Ireland's retrofit trajectory: Overcoming policy gaps to meet climate action goals

Ireland's Climate Action Plan (CAP) targets 500,000 residential retrofits to a B2 Energy Performance Certificate rating and 400,000 heat pump retrofits by 2030, supporting the European Green Deal. This study forecasts Ireland's retrofit trajectory using newly available Irish Building Stock Observatory data and logistic growth modelling. Results show B2 retrofit targets will likely be achieved by 2032 (two years late) while heat-pump retrofits will reach less than half the target by 2030. Structural barriers include rigid Heat Loss Indicator (HLI) thresholds for heat pump grants, lack of targeted interventions for renovation-resistant apartment typologies, and a comfort barrier among C-rated homes, which comprise 36% of the housing stock. Case studies reveal B2 ratings can be achieved without meaningfully reducing heat demand, undermining CAP goals. Policy recommendations include aligning green finance and other incentives with CAP objectives, reforming Heat Loss Indicator criteria for heat pump performance, targeting C-rated homes with tailored measures, and prioritising early market interventions. Without urgent recalibration linking heat demand reduction to CAP incentives, Ireland risks missing a critical policy window to drive down residential heat demand and decarbonise the residential building stock. • Forecasts indicate that Ireland is only 2 and 12 years behind Retrofit and Heat Pump Climate Action targets for 2030, respectively. • Apartments primarily require targeted policy focus to address decarbonisation challenges. • Dwelling ‘comfort barrier’ weakens motivation for required energy upgrades. • The current Heat Loss Indicator is not appropriately calibrated to the building stock or heat pump operating performance. • Energy Performance ratings should reflect both heat source decarbonisation and energy demand reduction.