Price Efficiency of Cryptocurrencies

We test price efficiency, which shows the fairness of trading for retail investors using the runs tests and variance ratio tests. We reject the hypothesis that Bitcoin prices are price efficient on most markets, but efficient on the Bitstamp BTC/USD. Coinbase departs from efficiency, indicating that fraud, later found by regulators, has significantly harmed retail investors. We also document barriers to trading of Bitcoin, which result in difficulties in arbitrage despite global price differences. My results predict the hack of the Bitfinex exchange, which caused it to close and harmed many people.

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Publication Details

Journal
Journal of risk and financial management
Published
2026-02-13
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19020143
Primary Topic
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00
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article

Price Efficiency of Cryptocurrencies

Jonathan Lee Miller
Journal of risk and financial management
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
article

Price Efficiency of Cryptocurrencies

Jonathan Lee Miller
article en

Abstract

We test price efficiency, which shows the fairness of trading for retail investors using the runs tests and variance ratio tests. We reject the hypothesis that Bitcoin prices are price efficient on most markets, but efficient on the Bitstamp BTC/USD. Coinbase departs from efficiency, indicating that fraud, later found by regulators, has significantly harmed retail investors. We also document barriers to trading of Bitcoin, which result in difficulties in arbitrage despite global price differences. My results predict the hack of the Bitfinex exchange, which caused it to close and harmed many people.

Journal of risk and financial managementVol. 19(2)
Tecnológico de Monterrey (MX)
Peace, Justice and strong institutions
Openalex Percentile: Top 69%
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
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