China’s Three-Level Game in the Middle East: Geopolitical Constraints on a Geoeconomic Strategy

China’s growing influence in the Middle East has rekindled discussions about the longevity of the U.S.-led system and the potential for Beijing to become a pivotal state in establishing an alternative framework. This paper analyzes China’s prospects and the structural and strategic limitations that restrict its influence, framed by regional order theory and utilizing an analytical-exploratory methodology. The analysis demonstrates that China’s most effective instruments of order-building operate in the geoeconomic and geocultural spheres. Its influence in the region grows mainly through market integration, infrastructure projects, and the spread of cultural narratives. By contrast, Beijing’s main weaknesses appear in the areas of geopolitics and security. Its strict policy of non-interference and dependence on the U.S.-led security system limits its ability to take full regional leadership. In this sense, China’s Middle Eastern engagement reflects both the strength of its economic and cultural resources and the fragility of its geopolitical posture, illuminating the paradox of a rising power whose capacity to project influence remains confined by structural and normative limitations.