Food security and climate shocks: Democracy and agricultural policy convergence after the global food crisis 2005–2008

Climate change poses risks for food security and civil conflict. Food systems do not exist in a political vacuum, however. Policy can undermine resilience and increase climate conflict vulnerability by distorting domestic production and consumption incentives, and creating barriers to trade. Policy can also be stubbornly resistant to reform. The 2005–08 global food crisis was a severe shock to food systems. It was a harbinger of events predicted to accompany climate change in the future. I examine the effects of the crisis on agricultural policy in democracies and dictatorships. I find a convergence in policy outcomes across regime type. Democracies responded to international calls for reform with liberalization and reductions in trade barriers, while dictatorships reacted to political unrest by bolstering support for farmers. Cross-national data analysis demonstrates that large policy differences across regime type were significantly reduced during and after the crisis. This result challenges simple narratives linking climate change, food security and grievance-driven contention. Changes in agricultural policy can play a role in mitigating the transmission of future price shocks into food insecurity and civil conflict.