Assessing the economic efficiency of the agricultural sector under climate and institutional risks (evidence from the Saratov region)

The agricultural sector remains one of the key components of the regional economy in the Russian Federation, particularly in regions with high agricultural potential, such as the Saratov Region. However, in recent years, the resilience and economic efficiency of agricultural production have increasingly been affected by both exogenous climatic factors and institutional constraints, including the volatility of state support, regulatory instability, and disruptions in logistics. The aim of this study is to comprehensively assess the impact of these factors on the economic efficiency of the regional agricultural sector over the period 2015–2023 and to propose substantiated directions for stabilizing and enhancing its productivity. The analysis applies methods of comparative dynamics, index-based evaluation, and econometric modeling of the dependence of production efficiency on climate and institutional risks. The results demonstrate a significant decline in sectoral resilience amid increasing climatic instability, as well as limited adaptability of the regional agricultural support system to external shocks. The study concludes that there is an urgent need to redirect subsidy mechanisms, expand climate risk insurance, and implement precision farming technologies.