Will Digital Trade Emerge as a New Engine for Boosting Green Total Factor Productivity in China?

Under the imperative of carbon emission mitigation, digital trade, emerging as a fusion of digital technologies and international commerce, has become a pivotal conduit for advancing sustainable development. This study constructs an innovative and comprehensive evaluation system for digital trade and utilizes the super-efficiency Slacks-Based Measure Global Malmquist–Luenberger (SBM-GML) model to quantify green total factor productivity (GTFP). It then empirically investigates the impact of digital trade on GTFP in China and its underlying transmission mechanisms. Empirical findings reveal a pronounced spatial gradient in digital trade, characterized by a “strong eastward, advancing westward” trend, while GTFP growth is predominantly driven by technological progress yet marred by regional disparities. Moreover, digital trade is demonstrated to substantially enhance GTFP, with this finding remaining robust in the face of endogeneity tests. Mechanism analyses further confirm that digital trade promotes GTFP through technological innovation incentives, green upgrading of industrial structure, and scale effects. Geographically, the positive impact is particularly evident in central and western regions, suggesting an emerging trade potential in these areas. Temporally, the influence shifted from insignificant before 2016 to strongly positive thereafter, underscoring a “digital carbon reduction multiplier effect” amplified by technological maturity. These findings provide important policy implications for leveraging digital trade to advance sustainable economic transformation.