Evaluating cropland restoration and reclamation strategies for sustainable land management: Insights from China

Ensuring sufficient cropland is crucial for food security and social stability. Cropland compensation, encompassing cropland restoration and reclamation, is an essential means of enhancing food production. Although previous studies have examined the production and ecological impacts of these two pathways, systematic national-scale comparisons remain limited. Here, an integrated comparative framework combining machine learning, dynamic balance analysis, and impact assessment is constructed. First, the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model was employed to assess cultivation suitability. Subsequently, potential areas for cropland restoration and reclamation in China were identified under the dynamic balance constraints. Furthermore, by setting different scenarios, the differential effects of two compensation pathways were simulated and compared. The results show that China has a substantial resource base for cropland compensation. China has a total of 44.95 million ha of potential cropland compensation areas, including 34.72 million ha for cropland restoration and 10.23 million ha for cropland reclamation. Both pathways contribute to increased food production levels but result in declining habitat quality. However, cropland restoration alleviates the trade-off between food production and habitat quality, whereas cropland reclamation can exacerbate it. In general, this study quantifies, for the first time at the national level, the potential areas and varying impacts of restoration and reclamation. It provides a unified basis for evaluating China's cropland compensation strategies and offers insights for sustainable agriculture and food security in densely populated or resource-constrained regions. • A novel method for identifying potential cropland compensation areas was developed. • China has a considerable potential area for cropland compensation. • Cropland compensation promotes food production but reduces habitat quality. • Cropland restoration has greater food production potential and lower environmental costs. • Consideration was given to the appropriate area for future cropland restoration.