Optimal Water Resource Allocation Under Policy-Driven Rigid Constraints: A Case Study of the Yellow River Great Bend

The “Great Bend” of the Yellow River, a region characterized by the tension between ecological fragility and economic growth, faces dual pressures from physical water scarcity and stringent policy redlines. Traditional allocation models often struggle to operationalize the rigid boundaries of the “Four Determinants” policy (water determines production, city, land, and population) and suffer from computational inefficiencies under high-dimensional non-linear constraints. To address these issues, this study proposes a policy-driven “Four-Determinant, Three-Multiple” (FDTM) rigid constraint optimization framework. First, a multi-level boundary system is constructed based on water-carrying capacity, thereby converting the policy into dynamic interaction constraints among industry, city, land, and population. Second, to overcome potential computational bottlenecks, an Improved Adaptive Cheetah Optimization Algorithm (IA-COA) is developed. By integrating chaos mapping initialization and an adaptive penalty function mechanism, the algorithm exhibits enhanced global search capability and convergence speed within confined search spaces. Using Baotou City as a representative case study, the model simulates scenarios for the 2030 planning horizon. The results indicate that (i) the integration of rigid constraints effectively identifies development bottlenecks, capping projected water demand at 1.075 × 109 m3 and preventing ecological overdraft despite a 5.15% theoretical deficit; (ii) through IA-COA optimization, a balanced trade-off between economic benefits and ecological security is achieved. The comprehensive water supply guarantee rate increased to over 90%, and satisfaction levels for all sectors exceeded 0.8, demonstrating improved allocation efficiency. This study elucidates the marginal transformation mechanism of the water–economy–ecology nexus under rigid constraints and demonstrates the applicability of IA-COA in solving complex basin allocation problems constrained by strict boundaries. It provides a methodological reference for sustainable water management in similar resource-stressed arid regions.