The Role of Shot Velocity in Advanced Post-Shot Metrics: Evidence from the UEFA European Football Championships

Introduction: Ball velocity is a critical determinant of shot effectiveness in football, yet its influence on advanced post-shot metrics, such as expected shot impact timing (xSIT) and expected goals on target (xGOT), remains poorly understood, particularly in the context of sex-specific differences. This study examined the relationship between ball velocity and these metrics in men’s and women’s elite European tournaments. Methods: A total of 2174 shots were analyzed from all matches of the 2024 UEFA Men’s EURO (n = 1305) and 2025 UEFA Women’s EURO (n = 869), classified as goal shots on target, non-goal shots on target, and shots off target. Ball velocity was measured for each shot, and its associations with xSIT, our own xGOT model and the StatsBomb xGOT model were quantified using correlation coefficients. Results: Ball velocity differed significantly between sexes (p < 0.001), with higher values in men, and goal shots on target exhibited lower velocities than non-goal or off-target shots, indicating a speed–accuracy trade-off. Only xSIT and our own xGOT model were sensitive to ball velocity, reflecting sex-specific differences (p < 0.001). When comparing shot types across advanced metrics, a consistent trend was observed in both tournaments: xSIT showed no significant differences between goal and non-goal shots, whereas both xGOT models were higher for goal shots on target. Correlations indicated a moderate positive relationship between xSIT and ball velocity, and moderate negative correlations for both xGOT models, slightly stronger in men. Conclusions: Ball velocity is a critical factor influencing shot performance and advanced post-shot metrics, with notable sex-specific differences.