Algeria Macroeconomic Projection Model (AMPM)

The paper describes QMPM, the Quarterly Projection Model for the Bank of Algeria that underpins the Bank’s Forecasting and Policy Analysis System. The model is designed to capture the key features of the economy, including the importance of the hydrocarbon sector, sizable fiscal policy impacts, monetary-fiscal interactions, a monetary aggregate targeting policy framework, and a managed exchange rate regime. Model-based analytical exercises demonstrate that AMPM displays both theoretical consistency and a robust data fit, confirming its practicality for conducting real-time policy analysis, forecasts, and risk scenarios in support of the Bank of Algeria’s policy processes.