Shale Gas Sweet Spot Prediction and Optimal Well Deployment in the Wufeng–Longmaxi Formation of the Anchang Syncline, Northern Guizhou

Shale gas “sweet spot” prediction serves as a pivotal technical link in shale gas exploration and development, directly governing the efficiency of exploration deployment and the economic viability of development projects. To address the research gap in sweet spot prediction for complex synclinal structures, this study establishes an integrated geology–engineering–economics evaluation framework, incorporating artificial intelligence (AI)-assisted parameter optimization and dynamic weight adjustment. This innovative approach overcomes the inherent limitations of single-parameter and static evaluation methods commonly employed in new exploration areas. Focusing on the Upper Ordovician Wufeng Formation to Lower Silurian Longmaxi Formation shale sequences within the Anchang Syncline of northern Guizhou, a comprehensive geological characterization of shale reservoirs was accomplished through the fine processing of 3D seismic data (dominant frequency: 30 Hz; signal-to-noise ratio: 8.5) and statistical analysis of logging data. Prestack elastic parameter inversion technology was utilized to quantitatively predict key geological sweet spot parameters, including the total organic carbon (TOC) content and total gas content, with model validation conducted using core test data. Coupled with prestack and poststack seismic attribute analysis, engineering sweet spot evaluation indicators—encompassing fracture development, in situ stress, the pressure coefficient, and the brittleness index—were established with well-defined quantitative criteria. By integrating multi-source data from geology, geophysics, and engineering dynamics, a three-dimensional evaluation system encompassing “preservation conditions–reservoir quality–engineering feasibility” was constructed, with the random forest algorithm employed for sensitive parameter screening. Research findings indicate that high-quality shale in the study area exhibits a thickness ranging from 17 to 22 m, characterized by a TOC content ≥ 4%, gas content of 4.3–4.8 m3/t, effective porosity of 3.5–5.25%, and brittleness index of 55–75. These properties collectively manifest the “high organic matter enrichment, high gas content, and high brittleness” characteristics. Through multi-parameter weighted comprehensive evaluation using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), complemented by sensitivity testing, sweet spots were classified into three grades: Class I (63 km2), Class II (31 km2), and Class III (27 km2). An optimized well placement scheme for the southern region was proposed, taking into account long-term production dynamics and economic assessment. This study establishes a multi-parameter, multi-technology integrated sweet spot evaluation system with strong transferability, providing a robust scientific basis for the large-scale exploration and development of shale gas in northern Guizhou and analogous complex structural regions worldwide.