Impact of ground motion model selection on the benefit from monitoring data

The management of seismic emergencies during the life cycle of a structure is one of the most complex topics in the field of structural engineering due to the high level of uncertainty associated with the demand posed by future possible seismic events, and the ability of the vulnerable systems to withstand such actions. Additionally, the process of selecting optimal management actions to ensure public safety and minimize the adverse impacts of the seismic events on society and the environment, while considering financial constraints, adds to the complexity. Data received from monitoring systems installed on and/or near to the structures improves the knowledge of the structural capacity and/or seismic demand, enabling informed decisions about the management actions. Information theory metrics such as entropy and value of information are useful tools to assess and quantify the benefits that monitoring data provides in supporting decision-making problems. In the case of seismic emergency management, the quantification of the monitoring outcomes requires the modelling of the demand posed by possible future seismic activity over a reference period. The demand must be modelled by taking into account the seismic characteristics of the region under consideration, which requires the evaluation of a vast number of seismic scenarios compatible with the seismic hazard of the area. The seismic demand is used to estimate the probability of the damage states of the structure based on the available capacity following a potential seismic event. Therefore, selecting an appropriate ground motion model for the seismic demand is paramount for emergency management. In this paper, we assess the benefit of a selected ground motion model for the seismic emergency management of a bridge via two information theory metrics, namely the value of information and entropy.