Modeling Ringed and Bearded Seal Future Habitats Indicates Stability, Shifts, and Refugia

Understanding how marine habitats are changing with a warming Arctic is essential for conservation, management, and adaptation strategies bearing tangible consequences for Arctic communities and ecosystems. Ringed seals and bearded seals rely on specific ice and snow conditions to support critical life history events affecting survival and reproduction. Here, we develop a panarctic habitat suitability model linking life events and environmental conditions. With Earth System Models, we simulate habitat over 1850-2100, revealing a relatively stable past habitat contrasting with rapid regional shifts in contemporary simulations and future projections. Core historical habitats are projected to decline, but two regions arise as potential refugia-the East Siberian Sea and Canadian Arctic Archipelago-that could support ice seal populations towards 2100. These findings underscore the importance of refined monitoring and regional conservation strategies for ringed and bearded seals, and their unique ecosystem.