Assessing Water Resource Carrying Capacity Risks: A Case Study of the Three Gorges Ecological Economic Corridor in China

The risk of water resource carrying capacity (WRCC) reveals the complexity and uncertainty within water systems. This understanding helps in identifying issues related to water resource overloading and ecosystem imbalances, which is of paramount importance in sustainable development. Water-rich regions bear significant responsibility for water resource allocation, with fluctuations in carrying capacity risks having widespread consequences. However, current research lacks regional assessments of the water resource carrying capacity risks in water-rich regions. Therefore, this study assessed the water resource carrying capacity risks (WRCCR) of the Three Gorges Ecological Economic Corridor of the Yangtze River, China, a typical water-rich region, by constructing a hazard index and a vulnerability index. The results indicated that (1) the WRCCR exhibited a medium-high risk (WRCCR ranging approximately between 0.6 and 0.8), initially declining and then rising during 2015–2019; (2) the development of urban agglomerations and the industrial structure fundamentally impact the WRCCR; (3) the consumption of advantageous resources coupled with low industrial productivity is a significant cause of the water resource supply-demand imbalance; and (4) in the future, water-rich regions should strengthen ecology-driven economic transformation and industrial ecologization to mitigate the WRCCR.