Evaluation and Prediction of the Water–Energy–Food–Land Nexus: A Case Study of Shanxi Province, China

Water–energy–food (WEF) is fundamental for human survival, with land use profoundly impacting their supply-demand relationships. Integrating land into the WEF nexus is crucial for sustainable development. This study used a pressure–state–response model to establish its water–energy–food–land (WEFL) evaluation indicator system. The entropy method and coupling coordination degree (CCD) were applied to assess the WEFL nexus of Shanxi Province during 2000−2023. The obstacle degree model and Geodetector were utilized to identify internal constraints and external drivers, while the ARIMA model was employed to predict future CCD trends. The results show that (1) the comprehensive evaluation index and CCD increased over time, but overall coordination remained limited (average CCD = 0.575). Most regions were at bare to primary coordination levels, indicating persistent subsystem constraints. The spatial pattern evolved from “high in north and south, low in central region” to “high in north and west, low in south and east.” (2) Energy and land subsystems were the main sources of constraints, while the obstacle degrees of the water and food subsystems increased. External drivers shifted from being dominated by government scale and economic growth to being led by technological innovation and urbanization, with growing interaction between anthropogenic and natural factors. (3) The ARIMA model predicted further CCD improvement to intermediate coordination by 2030, although regional disparities persisted. These results provided a scientific basis for resource management and sustainable development in Shanxi Province.