Pastoral conflicts and (dis)trust: evidence from Nigeria using an instrumental variable approach

Abstract Even though the incidence of conflicts between Fulani nomadic pastoralists and sedentary communities in Nigeria has risen significantly in the last decade, there is a notable lack of research examining how these conflicts influence distrust towards members of the Fulani ethnic group and Muslims. Using novel survey data from Kaduna, the state with the third-highest incidence of pastoral conflict in Nigeria, this study addresses that gap. Regression analyses show that exposure to pastoral conflict increases distrust towards the Fulani and Muslims. This suggests a contagion effect whereby the Fulani are conflated with the broader Muslim population, due to the Muslim identity of nomadic Fulani pastoralists. Disaggregating the data by religious affiliation reveals a pattern: conflict exposure raises distrust only among Muslim respondents, while effects are statistically insignificant among Christians. Among Muslims, the positive effect suggests that pastoral conflict erodes in-group cohesion. The null effect among Christians may reflect the way in which pastoral conflicts align with pre-existing religious fault lines.