It’s Not Just a Matter of Chance When No One Dies: Characteristics of Offenders, Victims, and Situations in Lethal Versus Non-Lethal Violence

This study investigates whether lethal violence can serve as a reliable indicator for assessing characteristics of non-lethal violence. Using police administrative data from Australia, the research examines violent incidents occurring between 2018 and 2022, categorizing them into three groups: non-lethal violence ( n = 61,813), near-lethal violence (attempted murder, n = 211), and lethal violence (completed homicide, n = 362). Employing multinomial regression analyses, the study identifies significant differences across these violence categories, highlighting variations in characteristics of offenders and their offending histories (such as prior history of property, weapons, and drug offences) and situational factors (including the use of firearms, location, and timing of the incidents). These findings suggest that the dynamics leading to lethal or near-lethal outcomes are distinct from those associated with non-lethal violence. Lethal and near-lethal violence was more commonly associated with offending history, weapon use, private settings, and night-time incidents, whereas non-lethal violence was more commonly associated with offender alcohol use and domestic violence indicators. Consequently, the study advises caution in assuming that characteristics of lethal (or near-lethal) violence can accurately reflect those of non-lethal violence. It underscores the necessity for tailored approaches in understanding and addressing different forms of violence, given their divergent underlying factors.