Navigating the winds of change: strategic foresight and the power of weak signals

In an era of increased complexity, interdependence, uncertainty and rapidly advancing technology, the ability to identify and swiftly adapt to current and future trends is key to progressing sustainability. Intersecting drivers and stressors are converging to destabilize socioecological systems and reshape national, regional and global outlooks. The intersecting and converging crises of the 21st century have exposed the limits of planning that relies too heavily on linear extrapolations from well-known global/mega-trends. This study explores whether a limited number of emerging trends that only manifest as weak signals today serve as central conduits (super-nodes) for amplifying and accelerating systemic disruption. Using an exploratory mixed-methods design, a global Delphi survey (N = 790, 132 countries) generated 1200 horizon-scan items, inductively coded into 29 clusters. Scenario stress-testing distilled the findings into 280 candidate weak signals—ranked by likelihood, impact, and timing—from which 20 were shortlisted and mapped onto a 20 × 20 influence matrix through structured expert debate. Weighted degree centralities and a 10,000-run bootstrap test identified statistically significant hubs. Results suggest that anticipatory governance can be strengthened by prioritizing high-centrality signals and institutionalizing ongoing weak-signal scanning alongside transparent, multi-source decision-making to avoid cascading risks across planetary-health, economic, and technological systems. At the midpoint of a decade dominated by disruption–climate change, pandemic, geopolitical upheaval, widening inequality, war, misinformation and the rapid rise of Artificial Intelligence–we posit that strategic foresight and informed anticipation is a critical imperative in the pursuit of a global common good and a resilient future.

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Publication Details

Journal
Sustainability Science
Published
2026-02-12
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-025-01786-5
Primary Topic
Delphi Technique in Research
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

Navigating the winds of change: strategic foresight and the power of weak signals

Simone Lucatello, Andrea Hinwood, Jason Jabbour, Gensuo Jia et al.
Sustainability Science
Delphi Technique in Research
article

Navigating the winds of change: strategic foresight and the power of weak signals

Simone Lucatello, Andrea Hinwood, Jason Jabbour, Gensuo Jia, Ljubiša Bojić, Debra J. Davidson, Nadejda Komendantova, Anne‐Sophie Stevance, Nicholas King, Henrik Carlsen, Sir Peter Gluckman, Félix Moronta-Barrios, Soumya Swaminathan, Michelle Mycoo, Nyovani Madise, Wilfred Lunga, Edgar E. Gutierrez-Espeleta, Ranjan Datta, Salvatore Aricò, Elham Mahmoud Ali, Diana Mangalagiu, Fang Lee Cooke, Wibool Piyawatanametha
article en

Abstract

In an era of increased complexity, interdependence, uncertainty and rapidly advancing technology, the ability to identify and swiftly adapt to current and future trends is key to progressing sustainability. Intersecting drivers and stressors are converging to destabilize socioecological systems and reshape national, regional and global outlooks. The intersecting and converging crises of the 21st century have exposed the limits of planning that relies too heavily on linear extrapolations from well-known global/mega-trends. This study explores whether a limited number of emerging trends that only manifest as weak signals today serve as central conduits (super-nodes) for amplifying and accelerating systemic disruption. Using an exploratory mixed-methods design, a global Delphi survey (N = 790, 132 countries) generated 1200 horizon-scan items, inductively coded into 29 clusters. Scenario stress-testing distilled the findings into 280 candidate weak signals—ranked by likelihood, impact, and timing—from which 20 were shortlisted and mapped onto a 20 × 20 influence matrix through structured expert debate. Weighted degree centralities and a 10,000-run bootstrap test identified statistically significant hubs. Results suggest that anticipatory governance can be strengthened by prioritizing high-centrality signals and institutionalizing ongoing weak-signal scanning alongside transparent, multi-source decision-making to avoid cascading risks across planetary-health, economic, and technological systems. At the midpoint of a decade dominated by disruption–climate change, pandemic, geopolitical upheaval, widening inequality, war, misinformation and the rapid rise of Artificial Intelligence–we posit that strategic foresight and informed anticipation is a critical imperative in the pursuit of a global common good and a resilient future.

Sustainability Science
National Authority for Remote Sensing and Space Sciences (EG), Human Sciences Research Council (ZA), University of Alberta (CA), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN), Central European University (AT), United Nations Environment Programme (KE), North-West University (ZA), M S Swaminathan Research Foundation (IN), Indian Society of International Law (IN), Universidad de Costa Rica (CR), University of Oxford (GB), Institute of Social Sciences (RS), International Institute for Strategic Studies (GB), International Science Council (FR), University of the West Indies (JM), African Institute for Development Policy (KE), International Centre for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology (IN), Latin University of Costa Rica (CR), Stockholm Environment Institute (SE), Secretaría de Ciencia, Humanidades, Tecnología e Innovación (MX), Monash University (AU), Mount Royal University (CA), King Mongkut's Institute of Technology Ladkrabang (TH)
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 62%
Delphi Technique in Research
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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