Forecasting malaria incidence in a resource-limited urban setting with climate variables as exogenous regressors: time series analysis using a SARIMAX model in Bahir Dar, Ethiopia
Our study demonstrates an upward trend in forecasted malaria cases for the upcoming years, suggesting a potential breakdown in current strategies. The result underscores the necessity of a targeted, localized early warning system to manage resource allocation.
Authors
- Tesfaye Taye Gelaw (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0003-8580-375X)
- Meseret Addisu Abera
Institutions
- Amhara Regional Health Bureau (ET)
- Bahir Dar University (ET)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Malaria Journal
- Published
- 2026-02-12
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-026-05823-1
- Primary Topic
- Malaria Research and Control
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00