Forecasting malaria incidence in a resource-limited urban setting with climate variables as exogenous regressors: time series analysis using a SARIMAX model in Bahir Dar, Ethiopia

Our study demonstrates an upward trend in forecasted malaria cases for the upcoming years, suggesting a potential breakdown in current strategies. The result underscores the necessity of a targeted, localized early warning system to manage resource allocation.

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Publication Details

Journal
Malaria Journal
Published
2026-02-12
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-026-05823-1
Primary Topic
Malaria Research and Control
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00
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article

Forecasting malaria incidence in a resource-limited urban setting with climate variables as exogenous regressors: time series analysis using a SARIMAX model in Bahir Dar, Ethiopia

Tesfaye Taye Gelaw, Meseret Addisu Abera
Malaria Journal
Malaria Research and Control
article

Forecasting malaria incidence in a resource-limited urban setting with climate variables as exogenous regressors: time series analysis using a SARIMAX model in Bahir Dar, Ethiopia

Tesfaye Taye Gelaw, Meseret Addisu Abera
article en

Abstract

Our study demonstrates an upward trend in forecasted malaria cases for the upcoming years, suggesting a potential breakdown in current strategies. The result underscores the necessity of a targeted, localized early warning system to manage resource allocation.

Malaria JournalVol. 25(1)
Amhara Regional Health Bureau (ET), Bahir Dar University (ET)
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 60%
Malaria Research and Control
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