Natural resource dependency and renewable energy consumption in China: A U-shaped nexus with dynamic policy effects using quantile regression for panel data

The transition toward renewable energy is critical for achieving sustainable development, yet the role of natural resource dependency (NRD) in shaping renewable energy consumption (REC) remains underexplored. This study investigates the nonlinear relationship between NRD and REC across 30 Chinese provinces from 2006 to 2020, employing a two-way fixed effects model, Quantile Regression for Panel Data (QRPD), and System Generalized Method of Moments (Sys-GMM) for robustness verification. The empirical findings reveal a statistically significant U-shaped relationship between NRD and REC, with a primary coefficient of −0.132 and a quadratic coefficient of 0.014, supporting the "conditioned resource curse" hypothesis. At lower NRD levels, resource dependency inhibits renewable energy development; however, beyond a critical threshold, NRD transitions into a facilitating factor. The QRPD analysis further demonstrates that government policy support dominates during initial REC development phases, while NRD effects strengthen as the renewable energy sector matures. Mechanism analysis confirms that green innovation and environmental regulation serve as transmission channels. These findings provide empirical foundations for China's carbon peak and carbon neutrality objectives, suggesting that resource-dependent provinces should strategically leverage natural resource revenues to accelerate renewable energy transitions through targeted policy interventions and technological innovation investments. • A U-shaped relationship exists between natural resource dependence and renewable energy consumption. • Low resource dependence inhibits renewable energy, but high levels promote its development. • Government policy drives early renewable energy growth, while resource effects strengthen later. • Green innovation and environmental regulation mediate renewable energy development.