Spatialization Study of Monthly Global Solar Radiation in Sparse Observation Area Based on Environmental Similarity and Spatial Proximity

Global Solar Radiation (Rs) is essential for ecological and climatic modeling, yet its spatialization is often hampered by sparse observation networks. Conventional methods demand a well-distributed set of stations with global representativeness—a requirement rarely met in practice. To address this gap, we propose a spatialization method based on environmental similarity and spatial proximity (ES-SP), which integrates the Law of Geographic Similarity and Tobler’s First Law of Geography. Using monthly Rs data from 11 stations in Tropical China (2015), we evaluated ES-SP against Ordinary Kriging (OK) and Local Polynomial Interpolation (LP) through leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV), with root mean square error (RMSE), relative RMSE, and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) as accuracy metrics. Topographic and monthly meteorological covariates were selected dynamically via random forest (RF), and the performance differences among the three methods were tested statistically using the Wilcoxon signed-rank test. Results show that ES-SP outperforms both OK and LP in accuracy and stability, achieving the lowest error metrics in most months—e.g., RMSE as low as 37.23 MJ·m−2 in December and MAPE as low as 4.34% in August—along with a narrow interquartile range, indicating consistent performance across seasons. Spatially, ES-SP accurately reproduces the coastal–inland gradient during the rainy season (May) and the latitudinal gradient in the dry season (January), whereas OK yields overly smooth distributions that obscure local details, and LP exhibits extreme instability and unrealistic spatial discontinuities. The study demonstrates that the ES-SP method effectively overcomes the reliance on globally representative station samples, providing a robust technical pathway for generating continuous Rs datasets in data-sparse regions such as Tropical China. Further research should focus on extending the geographic scope and refining the covariate set to enhance generalizability.