Modelling the Capacity, Structure, and Operation Profile of a Net-Zero Power System in Poland in the 2060s

This study presents an analysis of selected approaches to transforming the Polish power system towards a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emission economy by 2060. The generation-side system models primarily comprise renewable energy sources (RES), supported by nuclear power plants. Two system balancing scenarios were examined: Model G, based on biomethane-fired gas turbines and electrolysers utilising surplus energy; and Model H, which relies primarily on reversible fuel cells (RFCs) operating in a Power-to-Power configuration. Both models were considered under two demographic projections for Poland in 2060: maintaining the current population level (100%) and a decline to 71%. Simulations were performed with an hourly time step over a nine-year period, starting from 2060, using weather data from 2015 to 2023. The total electricity demand in the analysed scenarios ranges from 352 to 542 TWh/year, representing 2.1–3.2 times the current level. The proposed systems include 64 GW of onshore wind capacity, 33 GW of offshore wind, 136 GW of PV, 10 GW of nuclear generation, and extensive storage systems for electricity, heat, and gases (biomethane and hydrogen). In Model G, biomethane and hydrogen storage play a crucial role, requiring storage capacities of 5.8–7.5 billion Nm3 for biomethane and 6.2–7.0 billion Nm3 for hydrogen. In Model H, long-term storage relies on hydrogen reservoirs (approximately 12.5 billion Nm3) integrated with RFC units. The results demonstrate that the choice of architecture dictates the scale and technical requirements of the storage infrastructure. Notably, hydrogen serves as an effective energy storage medium, enabling the elimination of peak gas turbines from the system. Consequently, biomethane resources can be redirected to support the decarbonisation of other sectors of the economy.