A Century of Housing Policy in Portugal and Italy: A Comparative Process-Tracing Analysis

This paper compares the evolution of housing policy in Portugal and Italy over the past century through a process-tracing analysis informed by historical institutionalism. While numerous studies have examined social housing across Europe, systematic comparisons of how social mechanisms and actor interactions shape institutional change remain rare for Southern Europe. Drawing on an analytical framework that combines institutional analysis with policy process perspectives, the paper reconstructs long-term sequences of policy formation and reform to explain both continuity and change. The analysis shows that, despite differences in timing and governance, both countries have followed homeownership-oriented trajectories, with limited social rental expansion and reliance on family provision–key traits of the Southern European model. Yet their institutional paths diverged: Italy’s early regionalization contrasts with Portugal’s enduring centralization and later Europeanization. The study demonstrates how international pressures and domestic politics generate path-dependent yet distinct housing policy regimes.