From complexity to clarity: A climate security fragility measure for policymaking

The intersection between climate variability and violent intrastate conflicts has garnered significant attention in public discourse and academia. Addressing these complex risks requires acknowledging their nuanced challenges. This article assesses existing composite indicators (CIs) in conflict and peace studies, examining their coverage of climate security-related dimensions, methodologies, and assumptions. We propose a concept for a “Climate Security Index (CSI)” framework to capture the intricate dynamics of environmental, socioeconomic, political, and cultural aspects of climate security risks. Our review highlights shortcomings in existing CIs, such as neglecting temporal dynamics, lacking subnational granularity, and excluding indicators for climate impacts, natural resources, and agriculture. Furthermore, these CIs do not allow for assumptions about underlying relationships between indicators and dimensions. Our CSI concept evaluates structural aspects that are critical for understanding climate-related shocks. It assesses connectivity and synchronization across key climate security dimensions, considering the likelihood of extreme events and the government’s capacity to adapt and respond to climate security risks and socioeconomic disturbances. Despite its complexity, the CSI offers an intuitive graphical representation of a “fragility space,” aiding decision-makers in assessing climate security risks across regions. Its modular design allows for deeper insights into the specific structural characteristics of the system under analysis.