Bitcoin’s short- and long-run interactions with equity markets, oil prices and US macroeconomics: a global perspective

Purpose This study investigates the dynamic relationships between Bitcoin returns, global oil prices and equity markets, with a particular focus on the USA (S&P 500) and Saudi Arabia (Tadawul All Share Index – TASI). This study also aims to assess how macro-financial conditions, both domestic and international, influence cryptocurrency performance in the short- and long run. Design/methodology/approach Using monthly data from August 2010 to June 2025, the study applies vector autoregression and vector error-correction models to capture short-term spillovers and long-term equilibrium relationships between Bitcoin, oil prices, equity indices, inflation, US federal funds rate and GDP growth. Dummy variables are included to control for structural breaks and extreme market events. Findings Bitcoin exhibits strong persistence and significant short-run sensitivity to US equity and monetary policy shocks, while TASI impacts are more delayed. Oil prices consistently affect Bitcoin, highlighting the role of global commodities. Long-term equilibria reveal that Bitcoin adjusts to deviations from macro-financial fundamentals, with stronger influence from US than Saudi markets. Originality/value This study integrates both developed and emerging market financial factors, offering new insights into Bitcoin’s cross-market linkages and return dynamics.