Large regional differences in Antarctic ice shelf mass loss from Southern Ocean warming and meltwater feedbacks

Abstract. The increasing release of Antarctic meltwater represents one of the most profound, yet uncertain, consequences of global climate change. The absence of interactive ice sheets in state-of-the-art climate models prevents the direct calculation of ice–ocean feedbacks, leaving significant uncertainty in the global and regional consequences of meltwater discharge. This study leverages results from the Southern Ocean Freshwater Input from Antarctica (SOFIA) initiative to assess the ocean response to a 0.1 Sv meltwater perturbation and infer the feedback on ice shelf basal melting across 10 CMIP6 models. We analyze meltwater-induced temperature anomalies across distinct continental shelf regimes and compare them with SSP5-8.5 warming-induced anomalies. We then translate these anomalies into basal melt rates using a parameterization calibrated with a new observational climatology, which reveals strongly regional melt sensitivities that cannot be captured with an Antarctic-wide coefficient. Although the meltwater feedback is generally thought to amplify basal melting, our results demonstrate large regional differences, with implied enhanced ice shelf mass loss in some sectors but suppressed basal melting in others. The model ensemble indicates a warming feedback on the continental shelf in most East Antarctic regions, whereas in West Antarctica, most models simulate either cooling or reduced warming, suggesting a negative feedback. This regional contrast implies that East Antarctica may play an increasingly dominant role in future ice shelf mass loss. Simulations support existing hypotheses linking these asymmetric temperature responses to strong regional connectivity and shelf-break dynamics, including a strengthened Antarctic Slope Front, an accelerated Antarctic Slope Current, and reduced dense shelf water formation.

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Publication Details

Journal
˜The œcryosphere
Published
2026-02-12
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1087-2026
Primary Topic
Cryospheric studies and observations
Type
article
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article

Large regional differences in Antarctic ice shelf mass loss from Southern Ocean warming and meltwater feedbacks

André Jüling, Irene Trombini, Eveline C. van der Linden, Inga Jane Smith et al.
˜The œcryosphere
Cryospheric studies and observations
article

Large regional differences in Antarctic ice shelf mass loss from Southern Ocean warming and meltwater feedbacks

André Jüling, Irene Trombini, Eveline C. van der Linden, Inga Jane Smith, Matthew H. England, Christopher Danek, Ariaan Purich, Morven Muilwijk, David Chandler, Andrew George Pauling, Zihan Song, Rebecca L. Beadling, Chuncheng Guo, Shenjie Zhou, Aleksi Nummelin, Neil C. Swart, Qian Li, Jiajia Chen, Xiaoqi Xu, Ombeline Jouet, Torge Martin, Tore Hattermann, Max Thomas, Stephen M. Griffies, F. Alexander Haumann, Pierre Dutrieux, John Marshall, Petra M. Langebroek
article en

Abstract

Abstract. The increasing release of Antarctic meltwater represents one of the most profound, yet uncertain, consequences of global climate change. The absence of interactive ice sheets in state-of-the-art climate models prevents the direct calculation of ice–ocean feedbacks, leaving significant uncertainty in the global and regional consequences of meltwater discharge. This study leverages results from the Southern Ocean Freshwater Input from Antarctica (SOFIA) initiative to assess the ocean response to a 0.1 Sv meltwater perturbation and infer the feedback on ice shelf basal melting across 10 CMIP6 models. We analyze meltwater-induced temperature anomalies across distinct continental shelf regimes and compare them with SSP5-8.5 warming-induced anomalies. We then translate these anomalies into basal melt rates using a parameterization calibrated with a new observational climatology, which reveals strongly regional melt sensitivities that cannot be captured with an Antarctic-wide coefficient. Although the meltwater feedback is generally thought to amplify basal melting, our results demonstrate large regional differences, with implied enhanced ice shelf mass loss in some sectors but suppressed basal melting in others. The model ensemble indicates a warming feedback on the continental shelf in most East Antarctic regions, whereas in West Antarctica, most models simulate either cooling or reduced warming, suggesting a negative feedback. This regional contrast implies that East Antarctica may play an increasingly dominant role in future ice shelf mass loss. Simulations support existing hypotheses linking these asymmetric temperature responses to strong regional connectivity and shelf-break dynamics, including a strengthened Antarctic Slope Front, an accelerated Antarctic Slope Current, and reduced dense shelf water formation.

˜The œcryosphereVol. 20(2)
Goddard Institute for Space Studies (US), The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) (IT), Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (DE), Finnish Meteorological Institute (FI), Met Office (GB), Georgia Institute of Technology (US), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (NL), British Antarctic Survey (GB), Environment and Climate Change Canada (CA), China Meteorological Administration (CN), Princeton University (US), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (NO), NOAA Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (US), Danish Meteorological Institute (DK), GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (DE), Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (IT), Sydney Institute of Marine Science (AU), ARC Centre of Excellence in Advanced Molecular Imaging (AU), National Research Council (IT), Monash University (AU), Massachusetts Institute of Technology (US), University of Otago (NZ), Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (DE), Temple University (US), Norwegian Polar Institute (NO), University of Bologna (IT)
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Cryospheric studies and observations
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