Diplomatic drones? How states exploit drone exports for leverage

Abstract How do states use drone exports to build their leverage with buyers? The scholarly literature acknowledges that states use arms exports to cement alliances, improve the capacities of allies and support their domestic arms industry. But there has been no examination of how suppliers of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) tailor their export strategies to develop leverage with their buyers. This paper deploys SIPRI’s classification of arms exporters (hegemonic, industrial, and restrictive) and describes how each uses a varying combination of inducements (bundling, lock-ins, and predatory pricing) and risk-mitigation strategies to build leverage while avoiding reputational damage from being drawn into external conflicts. Examining new data on seven types of follow-on sales or defence cooperation agreements after drone sales, this paper finds that of the three of the five major drone suppliers – China, Turkey, and to a lesser extent Iran – operate like hegemonic exporters. To test the proposed mechanisms, it explores how China and Turkey have exploited their drone exports to build leverage with Pakistan. It offers conclusions about how drone diplomacy will evolve as the export market diversifies.