Lifecycle assessment of carbon emissions from low earth orbit satellite and terrestrial internet networks

The rapid expansion of low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite networks to improve global internet access has raised concerns about their environmental impact compared to terrestrial infrastructure. This study conducts a panel lifecycle assessment (LCA) and econometric analysis to compare the carbon intensity of LEO satellite and terrestrial fibre-optic networks across 100 countries from 2005 to 2023. Using ISO 14040-compliant LCA, we find LEO systems emit 0.1–0.5 kg CO₂e/GB, significantly higher than terrestrial systems (0.05–0.20 kg CO₂e/GB), with these emissions generated primarily during the launch (40%) and operational (35%) phases. Fixed-effects regression reveals that internet usage increases CO₂ emissions per capita (β = 0.1435, p < 0.01), while the share of renewable energy reduces emissions (β = –95.1288, p < 0.05), with LEO penetration having only a minimal impact (β = 0.0012, p = 0.332). Advanced two-stage least squares, Arellano-Bond generalized method of moments, Moran’s I (I = 0.12, p = 0.08), and random forest analyses confirm these findings, highlighting renewables and internet usage as key drivers of emissions. The findings suggest that emissions reporting frameworks and renewable energy integration may play an important role in aligning digital connectivity expansion with climate goals. These results highlight the need for sustainable digital infrastructure to balance global connectivity with planetary boundaries.