Impact of climate change on crop production and water-use efficiency in Rashid City, Egypt

Abstract Egyptian agriculture faces significant risks from climate change due to limited water resources, as rising irrigation demands strain fixed or declining water supplies. For sustainable, long-term agriculture, it is essential to improve water-use efficiency in converting water into crop yields and economic benefits, especially since farming consumes the most water. This study examined how climate change affects irrigation water efficiency in Rashid City, Beheira Governorate. The research employed a descriptive-quantitative method, collecting primary data through a structured survey of 120 farmers during the summer of 2024. The focus was on four main crops: cotton, rice, maize, and wheat, covering yields, net irrigation water requirements, irrigation practices, production costs, and crop prices. Baseline conditions were established using secondary climate and agricultural data from 2006–2020, yielding water productivity values of 0.25-1.08 kg/m³. Projections indicate that, by 2050, different crops will respond uniquely to a warming climate. Under warming scenarios of +2°C to +4°C, cotton is expected to increase water productivity by 8–20%, leading to a 2.7–38% rise in net income per unit of water used. Conversely, rice shows an opposite trend: at +4°C, water productivity decreases by 21.95%, but net income per water unit increases by 154%. For maize, water productivity is projected to decline by 29.1% with a 3.5°C temperature increase, along with an 80% reduction in economic efficiency. Wheat faces the greatest decline, with water productivity dropping by 14.55% at +2°C and 21.82% at +4°C increases, while economic efficiency decreases by 92% and 114%, respectively. These findings highlight the need to develop climate-resilient varieties and improve irrigation management to sustain the productivity and economic value of limited water resources.