Optimal Policy Generator: Evidence-Based Policy Recommendations for Jurisdictions

Abstract: Fifty US states with different laws. Two hundred countries with different policies. Centuries of variation in tax rates, regulations, programs. The data to know what works exists but isn't systematically harvested. The Optimal Policy Generator measures policy impact on two fundamental welfare dimensions: **real after-tax median income growth** (economic welfare) and **median healthy life years** (health welfare). These two metrics are hypothesized to capture the primary welfare effects of most policies while remaining directly interpretable. No complex conversion factors required. For any jurisdiction, four outputs: ENACT (evidence-supported policies you lack). REPLACE (policies at the wrong level). REPEAL (policies with net harm). MAINTAIN (policies aligned with evidence). Each recommendation includes expected effects on both metrics, confidence grades, and blocking factors (including freedom/autonomy constraints). Bradford Hill criteria operationalized into nine quantitative scoring functions. Synthetic control and difference-in-differences isolate policy effects from confounders. Agnostic to which party enacted each policy, only whether it worked. Projected welfare gains under framework assumptions: 5-15% of GDP for typical US states (90% CI: 2-25%), pending retrospective validation. Summary: The Optimal Policy Generator (OPG) produces systematic policy recommendations for jurisdictions at any level (country, state, city), generating prioritized enact/replace/repeal/maintain recommendations based on quasi-experimental evidence from centuries of policy variation data.